Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.276829 0.312798 0.351798 0.397250 0.448795 0.505472 0.572567
2025-10-26 0.225227 0.273216 0.329142 0.399221 0.484827 0.586177 0.715552
2025-11-02 0.177725 0.229618 0.294101 0.380316 0.492900 0.635379 0.830115
2025-11-09 0.140589 0.192387 0.260638 0.357488 0.491978 0.673007 0.936662
2025-11-16 0.116340 0.167909 0.239654 0.347271 0.505553 0.731299 1.080372
2025-11-23 0.097163 0.147303 0.220661 0.336518 0.516304 0.786981 1.229762
2025-11-30 0.085982 0.136538 0.214103 0.342739 0.552787 0.885776 1.460639
2025-12-07 0.072737 0.120510 0.197066 0.329858 0.557122 0.935013 1.620851
2025-12-14 0.063189 0.108953 0.185360 0.323642 0.571077 1.001602 1.821154
2025-12-21 0.055290 0.098968 0.174757 0.317516 0.583934 1.067833 2.031718
2025-12-28 0.050700 0.094079 0.172193 0.325129 0.622401 1.185335 2.357283
2026-01-04 0.045445 0.087204 0.165047 0.323061 0.642156 1.270565 2.634443
2026-01-11 0.041231 0.081869 0.160343 0.325638 0.672759 1.384456 2.996853
2026-01-18 0.038125 0.078266 0.158496 0.333715 0.716080 1.531701 3.459457
2026-01-25 0.033507 0.070931 0.148150 0.322536 0.716889 1.589639 3.735530
2026-02-01 0.029090 0.063394 0.136340 0.306393 0.704191 1.615991 3.944089
2026-02-08 0.026055 0.058426 0.129330 0.299887 0.712448 1.691527 4.286887
2026-02-15 0.023318 0.053736 0.122280 0.292202 0.716677 1.758352 4.621522
2026-02-22 0.021876 0.051820 0.121261 0.298730 0.756776 1.919751 5.236514
2026-03-01 0.019525 0.047426 0.113840 0.288357 0.752441 1.968069 5.554560
2026-03-08 0.017771 0.044244 0.108898 0.283519 0.761785 2.053850 5.996328
2026-03-15 0.016207 0.041320 0.104196 0.278582 0.770070 2.138268 6.452096
2026-03-22 0.015397 0.040217 0.103944 0.285533 0.812479 2.325022 7.256709